The oceanic components of the current La Niña have been gradually strengthening since March 2022, coupled with extremely strong atmospheric components that have been sustained through to mid-May 2022. La Niña conditions that developed in September 2020 continue to prevail through to mid-May 2022, though the first quarter of 2022 was marked by a relatively weaker La Niña intensity.National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) will closely monitor changes in the state of ENSO over the coming months and provide updated outlooks, as needed. Return to ENSO-neutral conditions is less likely (around 30%) during June-August, while it is very unlikely for El Niño to develop. However, there are indications that the probability may increase again slightly, with greater uncertainty, during the boreal fall of 2022 and early boreal winter of 2022-23. WMO Global Producing Centers for Long Range Forecasts indicate that there is a high probability (about 70%) of the current La Niña conditions extending into boreal summer 2022 and continuing thereafter, but with slightly reduced probability of about 50-60% during July-September 2022. While there was a temporary weakening of the oceanic components of La Niña during January and February 2022, a resurgence of La Niña has been observed since March 2022, further strengthening thereafter in terms of both oceanic and atmospheric indicators. La Niña conditions, which started in September 2020, continued to prevail through mid-May 2022 across the tropical Pacific.
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